You may not be interested in geopolitics, but geopolitics is interested in you.

Profile

Tim Ewing-Jarvie is the founder of Horizon Lab, an advanced data analytics company specialising in geopolitical risk management for global enterprises.

A former senior officer in the New Zealand Army, Tim's career spans strategic advisory roles from the Pentagon to some of New Zealand and Australia's biggest companies. Today he focuses on the intersection of grand strategy and business strategy, leading a team of innovators to bring actionable intelligence to decision-makers in near real-time.

Tim is a veteran of Iraq, Afghanistan, Timor-Leste and missions across the Greater Middle East region. He serves as an Independent Director on the NZ Remembrance Army Board, and holds a Master of Strategic Studies from Victoria University of Wellington, an MBA from the University of Otago, and a BA in Politics from Massey University. Beyond Horizon Lab, Tim is passionate about mental health, culture and the outdoors.

Expertise

Talking Points

From the Pentagon to the Boardroom: AI, intelligence and better decisions in complex environments

AI is changing the way organisations find, interpret and act on information about the enviornments they operate in. Drawing on military, national security and start-up experience, Tim explains how AI can be used to detect weak signals, monitor leading indicators and support better decisions in complex conditions. He also covers the practical risks, including over-reliance, poor governance, ethical blind spots and the risk of weakening the human expertise these systems still depend on. The session is designed for leaders who want a grounded view of what AI can do now, how it is developing and how to use it responsibly.

Key Takeaways:
The audience will leave with a clearer understanding of how AI can support better executive and governance decisions, particularly where organisations face uncertainty, speed and information overload. They will understand how AI can help identify emerging risks and opportunities earlier, while still requiring disciplined human judgement and clear accountability. The session will give clients practical questions to ask inside their own organisations about AI use, governance, ethics, risk ownership and decision quality. It should leave leadership teams better placed to distinguish useful AI capability from hype and apply AI where it can strengthen judgement, decision quality and strategic advantage.

Geopolitics, New Zealand and the New Rules of the Road: What a more contested world means for risk, resilience and opportunity

The global operating environment is becoming more contested, fragmented and less predictable. For New Zealand organisations, geopolitical risk now reaches well beyond foreign policy and security, shaping trade access, supply chains, energy costs, sanctions exposure, capital decisions, social licence and customer expectations. Drawing on experience across the Pentagon, the wider national security community and private-sector advisory work, Tim explains what is changing globally, why it matters for Aotearoa and how the implications differ across sectors. The session gives leaders a clear, practical view of the external risks and opportunities most relevant to their organisation, industry and strategic choices, including where disruption may create openings for better-positioned firms.

Key Takeaways:
The audience will leave with a clearer understanding of the major geopolitical shifts affecting New Zealand and the sectors most exposed to them. They will be better placed to connect global events to practical business consequences, including market access, supply resilience, cost pressure, regulatory exposure and reputation risk. The session will give leadership teams practical questions to ask about their own assumptions, dependencies and readiness. It should leave participants better prepared to anticipate disruption, test strategic choices and identify where uncertainty may also create opportunity.